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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.